Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 35.266452 38.295739 41.636666 45.628877 50.316307 55.706163 62.464374
2025-07-06 30.097317 33.894334 38.363052 44.118989 51.508903 60.945035 74.399985
2025-07-13 28.440435 32.911604 38.442345 46.011527 56.505746 71.274827 95.300820
2025-07-20 26.243773 30.887905 36.816706 45.261275 57.607978 76.273735 110.035242
2025-07-27 25.591963 30.696039 37.449627 47.530567 63.261396 89.365797 144.318167
2025-08-03 24.630223 29.966802 37.224163 48.465507 66.974587 100.309669 181.742521
2025-08-10 23.588247 29.019759 36.567477 48.613628 69.360349 109.535561 223.194479
2025-08-17 22.293990 27.619482 35.121741 47.328565 68.987899 113.089758 252.597155
2025-08-24 21.140993 26.341544 33.751010 46.003144 68.303213 115.768897 282.843647
2025-08-31 20.894722 26.332133 34.255971 47.796638 73.791043 134.798953 415.994393
2025-09-07 19.988174 25.307690 33.132638 46.691110 73.328270 138.695282 486.403570
2025-09-14 19.253109 24.496075 32.284416 45.979092 73.561876 144.695716 597.563778
2025-09-21 18.195473 23.278729 30.914709 44.570842 72.892982 150.508469 790.204268
2025-09-28 17.192628 22.107381 29.566644 43.119051 72.019857 156.149225 1108.363454
2025-10-05 16.941835 22.042877 29.974052 44.938399 79.127862 196.122612 7207.699829
2025-10-12 16.248239 21.252054 29.117261 44.217411 79.871869 212.624893 NaN
2025-10-19 16.117008 21.319849 29.692890 46.397198 88.935381 285.448012 NaN
2025-10-26 15.782191 21.041473 29.646532 47.294406 94.871112 360.230559 NaN
2025-11-02 15.360872 20.598115 29.272591 47.436503 98.631978 436.237177 NaN
2025-11-09 14.776241 19.860987 28.325380 46.203283 97.555453 463.663767 NaN
2025-11-16 14.227074 19.158644 27.400934 44.930344 96.057971 485.628223 NaN
2025-11-23 14.121116 19.175544 27.776261 46.652581 105.815033 755.394473 NaN
2025-11-30 13.661566 18.585625 26.997849 45.591195 104.845405 824.364460 NaN